Storm Lead Generation — Pro Forma & AI Outreach Comparison

Roof Works of Texas · Updated March 2026

Business Assumptions

Metric	Value	Source
Average job revenue	$18,000	Industry avg (insurance replacement)
Gross margin	33%	Industry standard 25–35%
Gross profit per job	$6,000	32.5–35% of job revenue
Net margin	11%	Industry standard 8–14%
Net profit per job	$2,000	After overhead & SGA
Target close rate — post-storm leads	15–30%	Storm leads convert 2–3× warm leads
Target close rate — cold outreach	2–5%	Industry benchmark
CAD parcels (Dallas County)	634,402	DCAD ingest, 96% geocoded
Avg DFW storm affected properties	500–2,500	Based on March 4 2026 event

Door Knocking

Baseline

How it works: Sales rep drives to storm-affected neighborhood, walks door to door.

Metric	Value
Rep cost (fully loaded)	$25–35/hr
Doors knocked per hour	20–30
Contact rate (someone home)	40–50% → 10–15 contacts/hr
Appointment set rate	10–15% of contacts
Appointments per hour	1–2
Close rate on appointment	30–40%
Jobs per 8-hr day	2–6
Revenue per day	$36,000–$108,000
Cost per job (labor only)	$40–$140
Effective CAC	$40–$140

Pros

Highest trust, immediate qualification, rep can assess damage on-site

Cons

Weather-dependent, physically exhausting, geographic limits, rep morale, can't scale without headcount, takes 2–3 days post-storm to mobilize

Cold Email

AI-Assisted

How it works: Export enriched parcel list → skip trace for email → send branded sequence via Hostinger SMTP. Already built in admin panel.

Cost Breakdown (per storm event, 300 Tier A+B prospects)

Item	Cost
Skip tracing (BatchSkipTracing, $0.15/record)	$45.00
Email sending (Hostinger SMTP, included)	$0.00
AI personalization (Claude Haiku, ~$0.001/email)	$0.30
Rep time to review + send (30 min)	$12.50
Total per campaign	$57.80

Performance Model

Metric	Conservative	Realistic	Optimistic
Records enriched (Tier A+B)	300	300	300
Email delivery rate	85%	88%	92%
Open rate	25%	35%	45%
Reply / click rate	3%	6%	10%
Appointment set rate	1.5%	3%	5%
Appointments	4–5	9	15
Close rate	20%	25%	30%
Jobs closed	1	2–3	4–5
Revenue	$18,000	$36,000–$54,000	$72,000–$90,000
Gross Profit (33%)	$6,000	$12,000–$18,000	$24,000–$30,000
Net Profit / EBITDA (11%)	$2,000	$4,000–$6,000	$8,000–$10,000
CAC (cost / jobs)	$57.80	$19–$29	$12–$14
ROI	311×	623–934×	1,246–1,557×

Pros

Fully automated after setup, scalable, permanent record in CRM, personalizable with AI

Cons

Email goes to spam for unknown senders, needs 3–5 touch sequence, slower feedback loop, requires valid email (skip trace)

Best For

Initial outreach blast within 24–48 hrs of storm, follow-up sequence over 7–14 days

SMS

AI-Assisted via Twilio

Top Pick

How it works: Same enriched list → send storm inspection text → AI-assisted reply qualification. Built in admin panel (pending Twilio activation).

Cost Breakdown (per storm event, 300 prospects)

Item	Cost
Skip tracing — same list as email, no extra cost	$0.00
Twilio SMS ($0.0083/message outbound)	$2.49
AI reply handling (Claude Haiku, ~$0.002/exchange)	$1.20
Rep time to close warm replies (1 hr)	$25.00
Total per campaign	$28.69

Performance Model

Metric	Conservative	Realistic	Optimistic
SMS delivery rate	90%	93%	97%
Open rate	90%	95%	98%
Response rate	8%	15%	22%
Appointment rate from responses	20%	30%	40%
Appointments	4–5	13–14	26
Close rate	20%	25%	30%
Jobs closed	1	3–4	8
Revenue	$18,000	$54,000–$72,000	$144,000
Gross Profit (33%)	$6,000	$18,000–$24,000	$48,000
Net Profit / EBITDA (11%)	$2,000	$6,000–$8,000	$16,000
CAC	$28.69	$7–$10	$3.59
ROI	628×	1,882–2,510×	5,019×

Pros

98% open rate, immediate, conversational, feels personal, fastest response loop

Cons

Opt-out/spam compliance (10DLC registration required), phone numbers harder to obtain than emails, can feel intrusive if messaging is poor

Best For

Same-day follow-up after email, re-engagement of non-openers, time-sensitive "we're in your neighborhood this week" pushes

10DLC Note: Twilio requires A2P 10DLC brand registration (~$4/mo) for business SMS. One-time campaign registration ~$10. Required to avoid carrier filtering.

AI Voice Calling

Outbound AI Agent

Top Pick

How it works: AI agent (Bland.ai or Retell AI) calls the prospect, introduces as "calling on behalf of Roof Works of Texas," qualifies damage, books free inspection if interested. No human needed until appointment confirmed.

Cost Breakdown (per storm event, 300 prospects)

Item	Bland.ai	Retell AI
Per-minute rate	$0.09/min	$0.07/min
Avg call duration (qualified + voicemail)	2.5 min avg	2.5 min avg
Cost per call attempt	$0.225	$0.175
300 calls	$67.50	$52.50
Phone number rental	$15.00/mo	$2.00/mo
Skip tracing (same list, no extra cost)	$0	$0
Total per campaign	$82.50	$54.50

Performance Model (shared)

Metric	Conservative	Realistic	Optimistic
Connect rate (live answer)	20%	30%	40%
Qualified (interested in inspection)	15% of connects	25%	35%
Appointments booked by AI	60% of qualified	70%	80%
Appointments	5–6	15–16	33
Close rate	25%	30%	35%
Jobs closed	1–2	4–5	11–12
Revenue	$18,000–$36,000	$72,000–$90,000	$198,000–$216,000
Gross Profit (33%)	$6,000–$12,000	$24,000–$30,000	$66,000–$72,000
Net Profit / EBITDA (11%)	$2,000–$4,000	$8,000–$10,000	$22,000–$24,000
CAC (Retell)	$27–$54	$11–$14	$4.55–$4.95
ROI (Retell)	330–661×	1,321–1,651×	3,633–3,963×

Pros

Scales infinitely, calls within minutes of storm, no human fatigue, consistent pitch every time, works nights/weekends, books directly into calendar

Cons

Some prospects hang up on AI calls, requires well-tuned script, AI can mishandle unusual objections, setup takes 1–2 days

Best For

First contact blast within 4–6 hours of a major storm event while reps are still mobilizing

Human Telemarketing

Comparison Baseline

Metric	Value
Caller cost	$18–$25/hr
Dials per hour	30–40
Connect rate	15–25% → 5–10 connects/hr
Appointment rate	10–15% of connects
Appointments per hour	0.5–1.5
Close rate	20–25%
Jobs per 8-hr shift	1–3
Cost per job (labor only)	$60–$200
Effective CAC	$60–$200

Pros

Human judgment, can handle complex objections, builds rapport

Cons

Most expensive at scale, turnover, inconsistent quality, limited hours, compliance burden

Direct Mail

Reference

Metric	Value
Cost per piece (design + print + postage)	$0.80–$1.50
500 pieces	$400–$750
Response rate	1–2%
Appointments from 500 pieces	5–10
Close rate	20–25%
Jobs	1–2
CAC	$200–$750
ROI	20–75×

Slow (5–10 day delivery), can't time to storm event, no personalization at scale

ROI Summary — Head-to-Head

300 prospects, realistic scenario

Channel	Cost	Jobs	Revenue	Gross Profit (33%)	Net / EBITDA (11%)	ROI	Speed
Door Knocking	$200 (1 day)	3–5	$54K–$90K	$18K–$30K	$6K–$10K	90–150×	1–3 days post-storm
Cold Email ★	$58	2–3	$36K–$54K	$12K–$18K	$4K–$6K	623–934×	< 2 hrs
SMS ★★	$29	3–4	$54K–$72K	$18K–$24K	$6K–$8K	1,882–2,510×	< 1 hr
AI Calling — Retell ★★	$55	4–5	$72K–$90K	$24K–$30K	$8K–$10K	1,321–1,651×	< 30 min
Human Telemarketing	$800 (1 day)	2–3	$36K–$54K	$12K–$18K	$4K–$6K	45–67×	Same day
Direct Mail	$500	1–2	$18K–$36K	$6K–$12K	$2K–$4K	12–24×	5–10 days

Winner by ROI:

SMS > AI Calling > Email >> Telemarketing > Door Knock > Direct Mail

Winner by Speed:

AI Calling > SMS > Email > Door Knock > Telemarketing > Direct Mail

Winner by Lead Quality:

Door Knock ≈ AI Calling > SMS > Email > Direct Mail

Recommended Stack — Storm Day Protocol

A storm hits DFW. Optimal sequence:

T+0 hrs Storm-alert cron detects DFW hail event → sends push notification

T+1 hr Generate Leads in admin panel → 300 Tier A+B prospects scored + tiered

T+2 hrs AI Calling (Retell/Bland) → 300 automated outbound calls begin

"Hi, this is Alex calling for Roof Works of Texas. We noticed your

neighborhood in [city] had significant hail today and we're offering

free roof inspections. Can I book a quick 20-minute visit?"

T+2 hrs SMS blast → 300 texts sent simultaneously (non-call-hours backup)

T+4 hrs Email sequence starts → personalized branded email to all 300

(reinforces AI call, catches those who missed the call)

T+48 hrs Follow-up SMS + email to non-responders (automated, 2-touch)

T+7 days Final follow-up email → "Last chance — free inspection offer expires"

Reps: Only handle calls from AI-qualified leads who said YES. Zero cold dialing.

~$150

Total Spend

per storm event

12–18

Booked Inspections

expected output

3–6

Closed Jobs

expected output

$18,000–$36,000

Gross Profit

from one event

AI Tools for Admin Panel Integration

Tier 1 — Integrate NowLow Complexity, Immediate ROI

Retell AI — Outbound Voice Agent

Recommended

Cost: $0.07/min, $2/mo per number
Integration: REST API + webhook → post-call webhook fires to /api/admin/prospects/[id] to update status to CONTACTED or INTERESTED
What to build: /api/admin/outreach/voice-campaign route that accepts prospect_ids[], dispatches batch calls, receives webhook
Timeline: 1–2 days to build + test

Twilio 10DLC Registration — Enable SMS at Scale

Cost: ~$4/mo brand fee + $10 campaign registration (one-time)
Already coded: lib/sms.ts + TWILIO_FROM_NUMBER env var — just needs credentials
Timeline: Hours once Twilio funded + 10DLC approved (1–3 business days)

Tier 2 — Short TermMedium Complexity, High Leverage

BatchData API — Automated Property Enrichment

Cost: $500/mo for 20,000 records ($0.025/record)
What it adds: Phone + email + storm damage history + equity + roof permit history
Integration: Webhook on generate-leads completion → auto-enrich top Tier A prospects
Replaces: Manual BatchSkipTracing CSV upload workflow
ROI breakeven: 1 job/month covers the subscription

Bland.ai — Alternative/Backup Voice

Cost: $0.09/min
Advantage over Retell: No-code setup, Zapier/Make integration, simpler for first deployment
Use case: Faster to test; switch to Retell at volume

Tier 3 — FutureStrategic, Requires Planning

Clay.com — Hyper-Personalization at Scale

Cost: $185–$495/mo
Use case: Pull LinkedIn + social data on property owners for ultra-personalized outreach at volume
Verdict: Overkill until running 1,000+ prospects/storm

Twilio ConversationRelay — Two-Way AI SMS

Cost: $0.05/message + SMS cost
What it does: AI reads inbound SMS replies and responds intelligently — converts SMS from broadcast to conversation
Build complexity: 4/5 — webhook handler + LLM prompt engineering
Timeline: 3–5 days

Tools to Avoid

Air.ai: FTC lawsuit filed August 2025, platform inactive — do not use
Apollo.io for homeowners: B2B database, poor coverage for residential
Attentive / Klaviyo: Built for ecommerce, $8K+ annual minimums, wrong market
Vapi.ai: Costs stack with hidden provider fees at scale — Retell is cheaper

CAC Comparison — Full Picture

Cost per Qualified Lead (realistic scenario)

Door Knocking

$40–$140

Direct Mail

$25–$75

Telemarketing

$15–$40

Google Ads

$25–$188

Shared Leads

$100–$200

Cold Email

$6–$29

AI Calling

$4–$27

SMS

$2–$10

Skip Trace Only

$0.15

Property Value Recovery — Why DCAD Appraisal Values Matter

Current state: total_value = $0 for all 634,402 parcels (appraisal file not yet loaded). Scoring model uses sqft as proxy — adequate but not optimal.

To fix: Download ACCOUNT_APPRL_YEAR.CSV from DCAD (separate from RES_DETAIL.CSV). Re-run ingest with: python dcad_ingest.py --skip-geocoding --values-only

Impact: Unlocks proper value-tier scoring — estimated 15–20% improvement in Tier A lead quality.

Five-Year Revenue Projection (Storm Lead Gen Only)

Assumptions: 4 DFW storms/year, 300 Tier A+B prospects per storm, SMS + AI voice stack

Year	Storms	Prospects	Jobs (3% close)	Revenue	Lead Gen Cost
2026 (partial)	2	600	18	$270,000	$300
2027	4	1,200	36	$540,000	$600
2028	4	1,500*	45	$675,000	$750
2029	4	2,000*	60	$900,000	$1,000
2030	4	2,500*	75	$1,125,000	$1,250

*Growth from adding Tarrant, Collin, Denton CAD data

$3,510,000

5-Year Cumulative Revenue

900×

Total ROI on $3,900 in lead gen costs

Pro forma prepared for Roof Works of Texas internal planning. All projections based on industry benchmarks and modeled assumptions. Actual results will vary based on storm frequency, market conditions, and execution quality.